Compare two stages of the demographic transition
Three steps, the way the exam actually works: work through the lab, write down your own measurements, then answer a 6-point free response. What you recorded goes to the grader with your writing, so a conclusion that does not follow from your own numbers will cost you the point — exactly as it would with a real reader.
Predict before you look
- Rate of natural increase is (CBR − CDR)/10 as a percentage. What does a NEGATIVE value mean for the population?
- Which stage grows fastest — the one with the highest birth rate, or the one with the largest GAP between birth and death rates? The two are not the same stage.
Nothing to submit here — these are to think through, so the prediction below is an informed one rather than a guess.
Commit to an answer now. It is not graded and being wrong costs nothing — the point is to have something specific to reconcile against once you have the data.
Answer every prediction to unlock the lab. A sentence is enough.
Run the investigation
Predictions first
The procedure and the simulation unlock once you have committed above. Observing before predicting is how a wrong intuition survives a lab intact.
Record what you measured
These are your numbers, not ours. The grader sees them, so your conclusions have to follow from what you actually recorded.
| Stage 2 crude birth rate | per 1,000 |
|---|---|
| Stage 2 crude death rate | per 1,000 |
| Stage 4 crude birth rate | per 1,000 |
| Stage 4 crude death rate | per 1,000 |
| Stage 5 crude birth rate | per 1,000 |
| Stage 5 crude death rate | per 1,000 |
Answer the free response
The demographic transition model describes how vital rates change as a society develops. (a) Calculate the rate of natural increase for Stage 2 and for Stage 4 from your recorded rates, expressing each as a percentage per year. Show your method. (b) Using the rule of 70, calculate the doubling time implied by your Stage 2 rate, and explain why that figure matters for a government planning schools and clinics. (c) Stage 2 and Stage 3 both involve a falling rate, but for very different reasons. Explain what causes the death rate to fall entering Stage 2 and what causes the birth rate to fall entering Stage 3. (d) Your Stage 5 figures produce a negative rate of natural increase. Describe the shape of the population pyramid this produces and identify one specific economic challenge it creates.
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